UFC 139 Is Ridiculously Stacked – Prelim Edition

I hadn’t looked at the undercard for UFC 139 until just now, and this may be the first time in history that I’ve recognized every single name on a UFC card. Miguel Freaking Torres is on Facebook?

Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo: I think this is a loser-gets-cut scenario. If Shamar can string together a few wins, UFC will promote the hell out of him. That doesn’t really mean anything if he loses, though. This fight is made for Danny Castillo to win. He’s the better fighter. But at the middle to low-end of the UFC, fights are extremely unpredictable, and fighters regularly show drastic improvements between fights.

Matt Brown vs. Seth Baczynski: UFC will look for any reason to keep Brown if they can, so I don’t think he’s out with a loss, but that doesn’t mean this fight isn’t important. Baczynski is likely out with a loss, though. I think Matt Brown wins this, he’s shown that he’s willing to use his entire game to win fights.

Miguel Torres vs. Nick Pace: When I first saw this, I thought, “There’s another bantamweight named Miguel Torres?” This is insanity. I had Torres ranked as the #3 pound for pound fighter in the world a few years ago. Torres needs to destroy Pace quick.

Gleison Tibau vs. Rafael dos Anjos: This fight should be awesome. I’m leaning toward Tibau, but I don’t think one guy has a great advantage. Whoever wants to be in the mix at lightweight the most will win.

Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman: This is the test for Weidman, and it’s the line for Lawlor. Both guys have to prove something. I think Weidman is making his way up the ladder, and he’ll win this fight and move on.

This is the coolest Facebook lineup we’ve ever seen.

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UFC Files Lawsuit Against NY State

I just read the ENTIRE lawsuit brought by Zuffa against the state of New York. Let me say in advance that I’m not a lawyer or legal expert. I’m interested in the law, and I pay attention to news stories dealing with the law, but I don’t have any actual education or training where the law is concerned.

The main basis of Zuffa’s complaint is that the ban restricts the freedom of expression of their fighters and fans. They devote almost the entire complaint to this. I respect the effort, but I think this is highly subjective, and not likely to sway a federal judge. I don’t know of any precedent for a professional competition to be considered a form of protected expression. They make a lot of good arguments, but none of them really sell me. Just because you can call something “martial arts” doesn’t actually make it an art, and even if it is an art, is it the type of art that should be protected by the first amendment? By the same logic, couldn’t we start calling pickpocketing a “thieving art” and strike down laws against pickpocketing as unconstitutional? I feel like this argument is just weak.

Another aspect of Zuffa’s complaint that gives me worry is that nearly every specific point they make can be remedied without legalizing MMA. They complain that the current ban is vague. They are trying to get a judge to strike down the ban entirely based on the lack of specificity or confusion the ban creates. The legislature would still be able to create a new ban that was more specific and avoided the aspects that Zuffa pointed out. A more specific ban could possibly be even worse, banning MMA training or even specific martial arts that are currently legal. If Zuffa’s argument is that karate is no worse than MMA, and the legislature still believes that MMA should be banned, why not ban karate as well? I don’t know how likely this is, probably not likely, but the fact that this conclusion can be easily reached doesn’t bode well for their case as a whole.

Zuffa has some more specific grievances with the law, they say that it violates the Equal Protection clause of the constitution, and the Commerce Clause dealing with interstate commerce. Even if these grievances are determined to be valid, the court’s decision doesn’t automatically legalize MMA. If they offer equal protection, they could instead interpret that to mean that boxing or martial arts should be illegal. If it violates the interstate commerce clause, it could mean that any sort of MMA promotion, advertisement, transmission of events, sales of DVDs, or any number of things could become illegal under New York law. Again, I think this is highly unlikely, but it doesn’t help Zuffa’s case that you could draw these conclusions. Also, these grievances are secondary to Zuffa’s argument that the ban violates their fighters’ First Amendment rights, which tells me they have more faith in that argument than the arguments dealing with commerce and equal protection.

I think a judge will dismiss this as an attempt at an organization to change a law so that it may profit, which it is. Zuffa’s argument is no less vague than the law it opposes. That’s not to say that I don’t want MMA to be legal in New York. I absolutely do. I just believe that the place for it to happen will ultimately be in the legislature, not the courtroom. If Zuffa is able to pull this off, that would be fantastic. I’d be on the next bus up to New York to see a title fight at MSG. I just don’t see it happening. This seems more like a PR move on their end, and a way to get their grievances into the public record.

Like I said before, I’m not a legal expert. This is just my opinion based on what I’ve read. I expect some actual lawyers with experience in this type of law to weigh in during the week, that should give us some more perspective. Here is the link to the full text of the complaint if anybody else is up to reading it:
http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/72799769

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UFC on Fox Aftermath: Lesnar vs. Overeem & Edgar vs. Henderson

It’s a good time to be an MMA fan. Next weekend, we get to see one of the most quietly stacked cards in recent memory at UFC 139, then we get to eat some turkey, then we get two title fights in December! But first, I want to talk about what we all just saw at UFC on Fox.

Finally, the lightweight world is making some sense, as Benson Henderson defeated Clay Guida by unanimous decision. This sets up Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar at UFC 144 in Japan. We’ll probably see Gilbert Melendez fight whoever holds the belt after that, provided he can win his December fight with Jorge Masvidal and probably an introductory UFC bout. Clay Guida is who we thought he was, the best non-contender at 155, maybe in all MMA. This guy can not win title eliminators. I love Guida, and after tonight he may win his third “Fight of the Year” award, but unfortunately all three will have been in losses.

As far as Edgar and Henderson, this is a really interesting fight. Henderson will have a gigantic size advantage, but I don’t know if that bothers Frankie Edgar at all. Gray Maynard was larger than Edgar, but Bendo might outweigh him by twenty pounds or more on fight night. This is a fight between possibly the largest and smallest lightweights in the UFC. Frankie has shown the ability to outwrestle and defend takedowns that is almost GSP-like, so it’s possible that the size disadvantage won’t amount to anything, but I just don’t see many ways for Frankie to win the fight. He’s got the biggest heart in MMA, he wrestles extremely well, he’s got KO power, he’s nearly unstoppable, and he recovers very quickly. That should be enough, right? Well, no. Ben Henderson is COMPLETELY unstoppable, is a great wrestler, has good submissions, and is probably an even match for Edgar standing up. And he’s bigger, and doesn’t lack for experience in five-round championship fights. For now, I’m leaning toward Henderson, but this fight should be close. It could come down to how well each fighter handles the time difference, fighting in Japan.

The next big thing to come out of UFC on Fox 1 was Junior dos Santos defeating Cain Velasquez. This sets up a bout between JDS and the winner of Alistair Overeem vs Brock Lesnar at UFC 141. Lesnar vs Overeem is a crazy matchup. Both guys bring interesting skill sets to MMA, so to have them fight each other is awesome. We have no idea what’s going to happen when they get in the cage. I think Brock will try to take him down and just pound on him, but if Reem can keep it standing, he can probably win. This is a good test for both fighters, but I think Overeem will ultimately prevail.

Assuming Lesnar wins, I think JDS would beat him the same way Cain Velasquez did, and the same way Shane Carwin almost did. Overeem, on the other hand, would give JDS fits. He’s a great striker, and he’s got a lot more experience with elite strikers than dos Santos. It might be wise for dos Santos to try to take that fight to the ground. I think Overeem would beat him.

I can’t wait to see how this all plays out, the next four months will be awesome.

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Mr. Edgar, You Have a Telephone Call at the Front Desk

Dear Mr. Edgar,

It has come to my attention that you will be facing Benson Henderson at UFC 144 in Japan. I’m really happy to hear that, and I hope to see an amazing fight. Let me be the first to wish you a healthy camp and good luck.

The reason I am writing you is to discuss your strategy. Namely, submissions. Look, everybody tries to choke Bendo out. It never works. NEVER. I’ve seen a dozen fighters give up position to this guy thinking they had him choked out, only to somehow be surprised when he got out of it. But not you, because I’m writing you this warning. Don’t do it. You can’t choke him out. You can probably knock him out, but your best bet is to carefully outstrike him, be aggressive, and take any opportunity to sit in his guard and waste time. Just don’t try to choke him out. Please. Do it for me. I lost my voice screaming at Clay Guida through the TV tonight. It was awful.

Your Friend,

-Ben

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UFC Plays Win/Win With UFC on FOX 1

This was previously posted as a guest blog on mmabadass.com

Nobody would say that UFC is afraid to take risks, but with UFC on Fox 1, they have seemingly hedged their bets big time. After the announcement of the event, speculation was rampant about the main event. Would it be for a title? Would Anderson Silva be involved? Would Ben Henderson and Clay Guida be matched up? Brock Lesnar had just announced that he was healthy, would he be the main attraction?

As it turned out, the answer was almost universally unexpected, as Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos were assumed to be fighting at UFC 139 the following week. This left them without a big main event for that event, but it also made their debut on national TV as big as it could possibly be. That is, as big as it could possibly be until the surprise signing of Alistair Overeem and the subsequent announcement of a match between Overeem and Lesnar in December at UFC 141.

What UFC did was genius. They gave away the heavyweight title fight on free TV as a way to promote their number one contender’s match in December. They knew that any fight with Brock Lesnar in it would probably be their top pay-per-view of the year, and with Overeem as his opponent, it would be even bigger. Putting their title fight on Fox, with the lesser-known JDS and Velasquez, would be worth a thousand TV commercials for UFC 141. It wouldn’t hurt that Fox could promote the “Heavyweight Title Fight” as we’ve seen it marketed the past few weeks, either. It would make both Cain and JDS better-known, and it would seem like they were giving Fox the biggest fight possible.

In fact, they are using the broadcast tv platform to sell us the biggest fight possible. Lesnar and Overeem will be in attendance at the title fight, they will be providing some sort of commentary in the pre-show or post-show. There won’t be any promos for UFC 139 or 140. Everything around UFC on Fox is focused on selling UFC 141.

The irony is that the heavyweight title is absolutely eclipsed by both Lesnar and Overeem. They are bigger than any title. UFC has been having a down year as far as pay-per-view buys go, but as long as Lesnar and Overeem fight at UFC 141, it’s safe to say that it will challenge for the top UFC pay-per-view of all time. Nobody could say that about Velasquez vs. dos Santos. Both fighters are really great, they are a new crop of well-rounded heavyweights that are seemingly unstoppable. But their names aren’t famous outside of MMA, and are only famous inside MMA very recently.

UFC let us know who they think their heavyweight champion truly is. As long as Lesnar draws insane pay-per-view buys, he will be the de facto champion. Not that I’m complaining, but I am struck by the irony of the situation. Cain Velasquez will have to retain his title for the opportunity to rematch Brock Lesnar, and truly prove his worth. This time, winning won’t be enough. He’ll have to prove it in dollars.

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Argument For a Cruiserweight Division

Please note, all research was done before UFC 137, and there have been at least three heavyweight bouts since then. 

A few years ago, there were calls for a cruiserweight or middle heavyweight division when Brock Lesnar was able to defeat the much-smaller Randy Couture by imposing his incredibly huge frame on Couture. At the time, Brock was among only a handful of established heavyweights fighting at a very high level who also weighed in at the maximum weight limit for heavyweight. There may not have been the athletes to put together a whole new division back then. But now, between Strikeforce and UFC, there are more than twenty-five fighters that weigh over 250 pounds, including a dozen or so that weigh in at exactly 265. Among the fighters that weigh in over 250 pounds are Lesnar, Antonio Silva, Alistair Overeem, Matt Mitrione, Mark Hunt, Shane Carwin, Roy Nelson, Josh Barnett, Frank Mir, and Travis Browne.

Of the nine weight classes in MMA, the lighter weights are separated by ten pounds apiece. As the fighters get larger, the disparity does, too. Welterweight and middleweight are separated by fifteen pounds from the lighter weights. Light heavyweight is separated from middleweight by twenty pounds. Heavyweight, though, is a whopping sixty pounds heavier than light heavyweight. That seems odd to me.

If it’s important that guys who weigh 185 pounds do not fight guys who weigh 205 pounds, should it be fine for a guy who weighs 206 pounds to fight a guy who weighs 265 pounds? Neither Dan Henderson nor Fedor Emelianenko weighed in over 225 pounds, in the same division as Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin, who both weighed in at 265 pounds. Hendo weighed in at 207!

On the other side of the coin, Cain Velasquez weighs in at around 245 pounds, and he’s generally a unanimous pick for the top heavyweight in the world. He’s able to manhandle guys who weigh twenty or more pounds heavier than him on fight night. Top contender Junior dos Santos weighs in at 240 pounds, and hasn’t had much trouble handling fighters that outweigh him by twenty pounds or more. These guys seem to be the exception, rather than the rule.

I wanted to know if there really is a disparity within the heavyweight division, if there is enough talent to warrant an extra division and possibly another championship. To get some answers, I researched all the heavyweight fights in UFC and Strikeforce over the past two years or so, since UFC 100. I especially looked at fights where competitors were separated by more than 15 pounds.

There were 90 heavyweight fights in that time period. In 39 of those fights, fighters weighed in with at least a 16 pound weight difference. That means that more than half the time, matchmakers had put together fights between fighters that are closer in weight to each other. In only 17 of the 39 fights between fighters with a large weight difference, the lighter fighter won. That’s just under half, which doesn’t seem too bad a record for the smaller guys, and seems to lean against the necessity for a new weight class.

There are some weird fights in the heavyweight division. King Mo Lawal fought at heavyweight and defeated a much larger, but less skilled Mike Whitehead. Randy Couture beat James Toney, who was bigger, but is not an MMA fighter by any means. By my count, only 7 out of the 17 fights where a much smaller fighter won were “serious” fights, though. Two of those wins were Velasquez, two were dos Santos, and one each belonged to Brendan Schaub, Fabricio Werdum, and Daniel Cormier. Given that these fighters all fight at or above 240 pounds, I don’t think they totally take away from an argument for a lighter division.

Looking at everything, I think there is enough of an argument for there to be a separate division at 230 pounds, because the lighter heavyweights are still at a huge disadvantage. We’ve seen historically great fighters like Fedor and Randy get absolutely destroyed by bigger fighters. We see lighter fighters being routinely matched up with lighter fighters until they put together a winning streak, and then they’ll get matched up with a bigger guy who demolishes them. JDS and Cain Velasquez are the exception, not the rule. At the end of the day, I think having a cruiserweight division between light heavyweight and heavyweight would really emphasize the athleticism of these bigger fighters, allowing some really great fighters to shine who otherwise wouldn’t be able to.

The only other question is whether or not there are enough fighters to make two divisions out of one. I’m not entirely sure there are. Besides the twenty or more heavyweights that currently fight at 240 pounds or less, there are also at least ten light heavyweights that could probably fight at 230 with no problem. There are also the guys that weigh up to 250 pounds that could never make weight at 205, but may be able to get into better shape and fight at 230. UFC only has 24 heavyweights on its roster, and Strikeforce has 15. If you put them together, and maybe get Rampage and Tito and a few other guys fighting at cruiserweight, that’s getting close to enough for two whole weight classes. Granted, they would both be incredibly weak at the bottom, but it’s possible that there are fighters that would come out of the woodwork to fight at 230 pounds that we can’t expect.

Ultimately, I think it could work. Even with two divisions of under twenty fighters in UFC or between UFC and Strikeforce, the fights should be exciting. As more and more large athletes see MMA as a viable way to achieve success, these divisions should blow up. UFC has shown that it understands the marketing value a larger fighter has, and finding a way to promote more big guys should be a no-brainer.

 

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UFC 138 is a Terrible Card


I don’t know what UFC is thinking. I expect their international cards to be weak, for the most part. They aren’t going to send their best fighters over to England to fight on tape delay and not make them any money in the US. But this card is awful. I haven’t even heard of most of these guys. I get excited about any fight, but how is the casual fan expected to even know about this event?

There are going to be some good fights on this card. Everybody is fighting to prove themselves, and that’s awesome. I’m really pumped to watch it. But almost none of these fights provide any consequence. These guys are all floating around the low to lower middle end of the UFC pool, and one win or one loss isn’t going to do anything for them.

Mark Muñoz needs to win to get a step closer to a title shot with Anderson Silva. If he can look very good against Chris Leben, he may be one fight away from a title shot. If Leben loses, he’s still an excellent, exciting fighter, and he will be back into a main event or co-main event in a few months (maybe a few weeks if we’re lucky). If Chris Leben destroys Muñoz, then he’s probably still two or three fights away from a title shot, and he’s going to have some really tough fights in there. Yes, this has the makings of an excellent fight, and a potentially important fight in the middleweight division, but overall this card is weak.

I guess the most damning thing about this event is that it was probably the card least affected by injuries of any UFC event this year, and it still has almost no name value.

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UFC 136 Follow Up

I got four out of seven, including all but one fight on the main card. Let’s see how the money stacks up.

Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens
Probably should have just gone with the favorite on this one.

My Bet
Previous Balance: $41
Bet $5 – Lost

Balance $36

Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago
Again, maybe I got a little too bold. Being bold helped me on this card, but I should have tempered it some.

My Bet
Previous Balance: $36
Bet $5 – Lost

Balance $31

Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon
This is where I started to get into a groove. I only wish I threw more money on this fight.

My Bet
Previous Balance: $31
Bet $4 to win $12

Balance $43

Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan
These guys delivered. Too bad the restaurant I was at had some satellite TV issues and I didn’t get to see the first two rounds.

My Bet
Previous Balance: $43
Bet $2 to win $1

Balance $44

Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann
I really don’t like Chael but I thought he’d win this fight. That promo was pretty sweet after the fight.

My Bet
Previous Balance: $44
Bet $5 to win $2

Balance $46

Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian
This doesn’t really matter at this point, but after I typed up my post for the fights, I saw that Bodog was paying (+325) on a prop that stipulated Aldo wins by decision. I would have hedged my Florian (+300) bet with the Aldo (+325) prop and almost guaranteed myself some money. Sorry I didn’t give you that advice, I’ll pay more attention to decent props next time I post about big fights.

My Bet
Previous Balance: $46
Bet $10 – Lost 

Balance $36

Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Did this fight deliver or what? I was scared for Frankie, but he pulled it off!

My Bet
Previous Balance: $36
Bet $10 to win $7

Balance $43 

After all that work, we’re up $2 on the event! That’s better than the $59 I lost last time, for sure. We’ll do this again at the end of the month with the GSP fight!

Disclaimer: I do not advocate illegal gambling. If sports betting is illegal where you are, please do not bet on fights. 
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Examining The Odds: UFC 136 Main Event

These three fights are about as big as you’re going to get on a single UFC card. The return of Chael Sonnen against one of the sport’s fastest rising stars, the unstoppable Jose Aldo against perennial contender Kenny Florian, and possibly the most anticipated fight of the year in Edgar/Maynard 3. I’ve got $25 left in my “bank” to play with, so here we go.

Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann
I can’t tell you how much I want Chael Sonnen to lose this fight. I feel like he’s bad for the sport. But I don’t know how able Stann will be to take him. Nearly all of Sonnen’s losses have come by submission, so that’s probably the way Stann will have to beat him, if he can. I’m sure Sonnen is a heavy favorite.

I don't think Stann will be a match for Chael Sonnen.

My Guess
Sonnen: (-350)
Stann: (+275)

Bodog.eu
Sonnen: (-280)
Stann: (+220)

As much as I want Stann to win, I can’t pick him. I know Sonnen won’t be able to use his steroids in this fight, but I think Stann is a little overrated, and I don’t think he has the tools to beat Sonnen.

My Bet
Sonnen (-280): $5
To Win $2
Balance $20

Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian
I think Aldo will be a healthy favorite, but I think Florian might be able to give him a run for his money. Kenny shouldn’t have the problems with Jose’s size that other guys do, he’s experienced in five-round fights, and he’s a very good fighter. I don’t know if that adds up to beating Jose Aldo, but he’s damn good. I haven’t seen the betting odds yet, but I’d definitely take Florian if he’s (+300) or better.

I think Florian has the stuff to beat Aldo.

My Guess
Aldo: (-300)
Florian: (+250)

Bodog.eu
Aldo: (-450)
Florian: (+300)

I’m doing it. What’s the point of betting anything (-450) unless you’re going to parlay it or something? I’m betting Florian. I think he can beat Aldo, I don’t necessarily think he will. But at (+300), you can make a lot of money off a little bit of money, I’m willing to take the chance.

My Bet
Florian (+300): $10
To Win $30
Balance $10

Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
This fight is so huge. These guys put on one of the best fights I’ve ever seen earlier this year, and the fact that the drama has carried us all the way here is insane. For the most part, I think people are picking Edgar because of how he ended the first fight, but after a draw, you’d expect the odds to be real close.

Edgar is close favorite.

My Guess
Edgar: (-125)
Maynard: (+115)

Bodog.eu
Edgar: (-140)
Maynard: (+110)

Not as close as I though, but still pretty close. I want to bet on Frankie. In the last fight, he won three or four rounds after being savagely beaten, that’s an inhuman level of heart, that also means he could have Gray’s number. I don’t want to write Gray off, it seems like he’s almost the biggest (+110) underdog of all time, he’s really not getting any love from anybody, but that’s what happens when you look like crap for 3 rounds because you can’t finish. Still, I like Frankie all the way.

My Bet
Edgar (-140): $10
To Win $7
Balance $0

Please remember, any man can win any fight, so betting on MMA can be incredibly risky. On average, fights are more evenly matched than team sports. Keep this in mind if you bet on MMA. Favorites lose all the time, but generally the public isn’t as well-informed about martial arts as they would be about mainstream team sports. With knowledge you may be able to exploit weaknesses in MMA handicapping.
If you have any questions about some of this jargon or about MMA betting in general, feel free to ask in the comments.
Disclaimer: I do not advocate illegal gambling. If sports betting is illegal where you are, please do not bet on games. If it is illegal for you, or you are unsure, and still want to try your hand at sports betting, Centsports.com is an ad-supported, free website that is legal in the United States. Please note, also, that betting odds may change before the fight, so the odds posted here may not be the same when you read this, or uniform to all sports books. 
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Examining The Odds: UFC 136 Prelims/Main Card

I didn’t do so well last time. I’ve got $41 in my “bank.” This is a pretty huge card, with a ton of important fights, so I’m not wasting any time. I’ll hit all the televised fights. Please note, I’m not putting too much money on these fights so I can save the majority of my bank for the biggest fights on the card.

Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens
You know me, I’m always pumped for good lightweight fights! I can’t wait to see how this turns out. Pettis is coming off a loss to Clay Guida, but that shouldn’t hurt his chances against Jeremy Stephens and he should be a healthy favorite.

Stephens is the underdog, but I think he'll be able to pull it off.

My Guess
Pettis: (-200)
Stephens: (+175)

Bodog.eu
Pettis: (-285)
Stephens: (+225)

I think Pettis is maybe too heavy a favorite. I think Stephens is a good value, but I’m really scared of this fight. Pettis is a good lightweight, but he may not be as good as we think.

My Bet
Stephens (+225): $5
To Win $11
Balance $36

Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago
Maia will be the favorite, but I don’t know if I actually like him to win. Santiago is coming off a loss to Brian Stann, but Maia hasn’t beaten anybody of consequence in ages.

I think Santiago can win, but it's going to be close.

My Guess
Maia: (-300)
Santiago: (+225)

Sportsbook.ag
Maia: (-275)
Santiago: (+215)

I kind of like the underdog in this fight, too. Doesn’t this seem like a trap to you? It does to me. Maia has never really impressed me. Especially not lately. Then again, I’m not really too high on Jorge Santiago, either. Tough decision. I think the fight is closer than the odds say, which makes Santiago is a bargain, but he still has to win the fight or it’s money wasted.

My Bet
Santiago (+215): $5
To Win $11
Balance $31

Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon
Do I need to go on another rant about how Guillard is nowhere near a title shot? Melvin has never even fought anybody in consideration for a title shot. That’s how far away he is. He’s never fought anybody who ever fought anybody….OK, this isn’t the time or place. Guillard’s won five in a row, Lauzon will be the underdog.

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I think Lauzon can use his ground game to beat Guillard.

My Guess
Guillard: (-400)
Lauzon: (+250)

Bodog.eu
Guillard: (-450)
Lauzon: (+300)

Guillard is probably the safe bet in this fight. I want Lauzon to choke him out so we don’t have to hear about how Melvin should be getting a title shot. I might take a flyer on Lauzon.

My Bet
Lauzon (+300): $4
To Win $12
Balance $27

Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan
Six months ago I would have loved this fight. Now that both of these guys have lost a fight since their controversial decision, I’m kind of uninterested. I don’t know who the favorite will be. I’m going to be surprised if it’s not close.

Nam Phan is a favorite, and I think he'll win.

My Guess
Garcia: (-110)
Phan: (-110)

Sportsbook.ag
Garcia: (+170)
Phan: (-210)

I’m surprised! Well, I guess Phan does have a history of being better. The judges shouldn’t get it wrong again. I don’t like (-210), but I like Phan to win.

My Bet
Phan (-210): $2
To Win $1
Balance $25

Please remember, any man can win any fight, so betting on MMA can be incredibly risky. On average, fights are more evenly matched than team sports. Keep this in mind if you bet on MMA. Favorites lose all the time, but generally the public isn’t as well-informed about martial arts as they would be about mainstream team sports. With knowledge you may be able to exploit weaknesses in MMA handicapping.
If you have any questions about some of this jargon or about MMA betting in general, feel free to ask in the comments.
Disclaimer: I do not advocate illegal gambling. If sports betting is illegal where you are, please do not bet on games. If it is illegal for you, or you are unsure, and still want to try your hand at sports betting, Centsports.com is an ad-supported, free website that is legal in the United States. Please note, also, that betting odds may change before the fight, so the odds posted here may not be the same when you read this, or uniform to all sports books. 
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