It’s a good time to be an MMA fan. Next weekend, we get to see one of the most quietly stacked cards in recent memory at UFC 139, then we get to eat some turkey, then we get two title fights in December! But first, I want to talk about what we all just saw at UFC on Fox.
Finally, the lightweight world is making some sense, as Benson Henderson defeated Clay Guida by unanimous decision. This sets up Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar at UFC 144 in Japan. We’ll probably see Gilbert Melendez fight whoever holds the belt after that, provided he can win his December fight with Jorge Masvidal and probably an introductory UFC bout. Clay Guida is who we thought he was, the best non-contender at 155, maybe in all MMA. This guy can not win title eliminators. I love Guida, and after tonight he may win his third “Fight of the Year” award, but unfortunately all three will have been in losses.
As far as Edgar and Henderson, this is a really interesting fight. Henderson will have a gigantic size advantage, but I don’t know if that bothers Frankie Edgar at all. Gray Maynard was larger than Edgar, but Bendo might outweigh him by twenty pounds or more on fight night. This is a fight between possibly the largest and smallest lightweights in the UFC. Frankie has shown the ability to outwrestle and defend takedowns that is almost GSP-like, so it’s possible that the size disadvantage won’t amount to anything, but I just don’t see many ways for Frankie to win the fight. He’s got the biggest heart in MMA, he wrestles extremely well, he’s got KO power, he’s nearly unstoppable, and he recovers very quickly. That should be enough, right? Well, no. Ben Henderson is COMPLETELY unstoppable, is a great wrestler, has good submissions, and is probably an even match for Edgar standing up. And he’s bigger, and doesn’t lack for experience in five-round championship fights. For now, I’m leaning toward Henderson, but this fight should be close. It could come down to how well each fighter handles the time difference, fighting in Japan.
The next big thing to come out of UFC on Fox 1 was Junior dos Santos defeating Cain Velasquez. This sets up a bout between JDS and the winner of Alistair Overeem vs Brock Lesnar at UFC 141. Lesnar vs Overeem is a crazy matchup. Both guys bring interesting skill sets to MMA, so to have them fight each other is awesome. We have no idea what’s going to happen when they get in the cage. I think Brock will try to take him down and just pound on him, but if Reem can keep it standing, he can probably win. This is a good test for both fighters, but I think Overeem will ultimately prevail.
Assuming Lesnar wins, I think JDS would beat him the same way Cain Velasquez did, and the same way Shane Carwin almost did. Overeem, on the other hand, would give JDS fits. He’s a great striker, and he’s got a lot more experience with elite strikers than dos Santos. It might be wise for dos Santos to try to take that fight to the ground. I think Overeem would beat him.
I can’t wait to see how this all plays out, the next four months will be awesome.
