Rashad Evans: Snakebit (October Update)

Posted on October 6, 2011 by Ben

I love this picture.

This guy can’t get anything to go right! He hurt his hand fighting Tito Ortiz and loses another title shot. Damn!!

Looks like Jon Jones will be facing Lyoto Machida in Toronto at UFC 140 instead of Rashad Evans.

Personally, I think Machida is going to be the matchup that really tests Jones, but we’ve seen a kind of weak-ass version of Machida the past few fights. If a confident Machida shows up, I think he can give Jones a run for his money. He’s the type of striker that can hurt Jones if he can defend takedowns and get in range.

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UFC: Cruz vs. Johnson Follow-Up

Posted on October 2, 2011 by Ben


OK, I didn’t do so well. There was a great night of fights, but I definitely got my clock cleaned on the main card picks.

Matt Wiman vs. Mac Danzig

Very close fight, I thought Danzig had a good chance to win, but he wasn’t able to take over more than one round.

My Bet
Previous Balance: $100
Bet $20 – Lost
Balance $80

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson vs. Charlie Brenneman
I should have made this my “big” pick. Johnson had no trouble taking Brenneman apart. There were some rumblings about an early stoppage, but even if Brenneman could have kept fighting, Yamasaki had to make that call in the heat of the moment.

My Bet
Previous Balance: $80
Bet $15 to Win $8
Balance $88

Pat Barry vs. Stefan Struve
Well, I was in the black for a few minutes, at least. I didn’t think Struve could take Barry down. He used a guillotine to get him to the ground, which says something about both guys. Struve has some long-ass limbs.

My Bet
Previous Balance: $88
Bet $50 – Lost
Balance $38

Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson
Johnson really showed up, the fight was great, but Cruz was just better. I know better than to expect knockouts in this division, but we got a great fight.

My Bet
Previous Balance: $38
Bet $15 to Win $3
Balance $41

So I’m left with $41 to use in an intelligent manner on UFC 136. Hope everybody else made better picks than me. In retrospect, I shouldn’t have put half my money on one fight. I should have put more money on the fights I felt most secure in, even though I didn’t like the payouts very much. If I was betting real money, I would have parlayed Cruz and Johnson, and I’d be in better shape. 
Disclaimer: I do not advocate illegal gambling. If sports betting is illegal where you are, please do not bet on fights. 
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Examining The Odds: UFC Cruz vs. Johnson

Posted on September 30, 2011 by Ben


I’m going to try a new format for Examining The Odds to add a little accountability to my picks. I’ll start with $100 balance and I’ll bet all of it on the fights this weekend, then I’ll carry whatever balance I’m left with over to next week’s fights. The goal is to be rich with imaginary money. I’ll follow up Sunday or Monday with results and winnings!

This is one of the most underrated events UFC has ever put on. I mean, there is a TITLE FIGHT with one of the best fighters in the world on this card. And it’s right in my back yard! I feel like I should be there, but I couldn’t make it happen this time.

Matt Wiman vs. Mac Danzig
This is a rematch of a fight that ended in a controversial referee stoppage last June. Both guys are in really important places in their respective careers right now, so avenging a loss or deflating the controversy isn’t really a priority for either one. Matt Wiman is trying to rebound from his somewhat controversial loss to Dennis Siver a few months ago, where he showed a serious lack of aggression toward the end of the fight. Mac Danzig is trying to establish himself as an up-and-coming fighter, and to do that he has to string together a few wins. I think Wiman is a slight favorite, even though he’s coming off a loss and Danzig is coming off a huge KO victory against Joe Stevenson.

Danzig is trying to play the resurgent underdog against Matt Wiman

My Guess
Wiman: (-150)
Danzig: (+125)

Bodog.eu
Wiman: (-205)
Danzig: (+165)

This is about where I thought it would be. I would hope for better odds before I bet on Wiman. I feel like (-150) is the worst I’d take Wiman at. This is a really tough one. I’m going to take a flier on Danzig. I feel like the risk is about equal on both sides.

My Bet
Danzig: $20
To Win $33
Balance $80

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson vs. Charlie Brenneman
Charlie Brenneman is the feel-good story of the year so far, being an almost unknown fighter coming in to face Rick Story on short notice in June, and completely dismantling him for three rounds. That won’t matter to Anthony Johnson, who should be a heavy favorite.

Johnson should be a bigger favorite against Brenneman.

My Guess
Johnson: (-300)
Brenneman: (+225)

Bodog.eu
Johnson: (-185)
Brenneman: (+155)

Brenneman is getting more love than he deserves. Johnson has won four of his last five, against tougher competition than Brenneman has faced. We’ve only seen Brenneman wrestling, Johnson has good wrestling and good stand-up. Could we be in for another upset by Brenneman? Sure, we could be. At (+250) I’d probably take him. But at (-185) I’ll take Johnson.

My Bet
Johnson: $15
To Win $8
Balance $65

Pat Barry vs. Stefan Struve
In my opinion, this is a momentum-builder for Barry. Despite having a 10.5″ reach advantage, and a 12″ height advantage, Struve isn’t at the same technical level as Barry. I don’t know if the general public knows that, and I think this fight will be closer in the books than it should be. With both guys coming off losses, Struve may be a slight favorite.

Pat Barry is the favorite against the much-taller Struve

My Guess
Barry: (+125)
Struve: (-115)

Bodog.eu
Barry: (-185)
Struve: (+155)

The public is smarter than I thought! I was going to try and get a sweet deal on Barry, but it looks like he’s trading at market value. We’ve seen the blueprint for a small guy beating Struve, and Barry’s a comparable striker to Roy Nelson in this scenario. He’s more of a puncher than Nelson, for sure. This is another tough decision as far as who to take, because the payout on Barry isn’t very good. I don’t want to take Struve at all, so I’ll take Barry at (-185).

My Bet
Barry: $50
To Win $27
Balance $15

Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson
Does anybody think Johnson to stands a chance here? Urijah Faber is the second-best bantamweight in the world, and Cruz handled him easily.

This fight should further establish Cruz's dominance as a champion.

My Guess
Cruz: (-400)
Johnson: (+350)

Bodog.eu
Cruz: (-525)
Johnson: (+325)

What more can I say? Sometimes I’ll put a small bet on an underdog because the payout is so great, but it’s not even worth it on this fight.

My Bet
Cruz: $15
To Win $3
Balance $0

Please remember, any man can win any fight, so betting on MMA can be incredibly risky. On average, fights are more evenly matched than team sports. Keep this in mind if you bet on MMA. Favorites lose all the time, but generally the public isn’t as well-informed about martial arts as they would be about mainstream team sports. With knowledge you may be able to exploit weaknesses in MMA handicapping.
If you have any questions about some of this jargon or about MMA betting in general, feel free to ask in the comments.
Disclaimer: I do not advocate illegal gambling. If sports betting is illegal where you are, please do not bet on games. Please note, also, that betting odds may change before the fight, so the odds posted here may not be the same when you read this, or uniform to all sports books. 
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Jon Jones is Awesome, But…..

Posted on September 27, 2011 by Ben

Jones is the champ.

I don’t believe there’s a man at 205 that can beat Jon Jones. He tore up Shogun, and he tore up Rampage. Rashad Evans may be a more even match for him, but I wouldn’t pick Evans to win the fight.

I’m not jumping on the Jones bandwagon just yet, though. This guy has some serious, fundamental holes in his game. In the third and fourth rounds of the fight with Rampage Jackson, Jones looked tired at times, he looked gassed, his hands were down, his head wasn’t moving. Rampage looked alert, he looked to be in great physical shape, he had great head movement, and was doing a very good job of avoiding most of Jones’ strikes. Jones’ conditioning is not a strong point, and it really needs to be if he plans on holding on to the title.

Jones’ striking really isn’t impressive, either. He really wasn’t landing anything too serious. It looks great when he lands a spinning elbow/backfist, but when you do it every time you get in close, your opponent knows you’re about to do it and ducks out of the way and counters with something dangerous.

Despite having some major flaws in his game, I still think Jones can beat anybody in the division based only on his length and his quickness. His reach is long enough that Rampage could never find a good range to strike or counter-strike from. His quickness is such that when he gave Rampage the opportunity to strike from inside, he was out of reach before the blow could land. The frustration was clearly getting to Jackson, he couldn’t land anything, Jones was never in his range.

It may take a fight with Anderson Silva, or somebody like him, to beat Jones. I think Anderson could beat him today at 205. He would be able to outstrike Jones, and his quickness is enough of a threat to make Jones think twice about shooting for takedowns. If Jones got Anderson to the ground, he would be defending submission after submission, not to mention one of the best strikers in MMA from his back.

I don’t want to sound like I’m trash-talking Jon Jones. Yes, it frustrates me that this guy is physically gifted to the point that better fighters can’t compete with him. But that also makes him awesome. I want to see him live up to his potential, though. He needs to improve his technique, and he really needs to improve his conditioning. He’s not old enough to gas that fast. They should bring in Freddie Roach and see if he can show the type of striking improvement that GSP did.

At the end of the day, you really have to give it up to the guy. I expected him to leg kick the hell out of Rampage, and he really didn’t. If Jones spent the first two rounds focusing on throwing leg kicks, he probably could have taken out one of Rampage’s knees and ended the fight sooner. Instead, he stood and threw punches with Rampage, and I respect that.

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Examining The Odds: UFC 135

Posted on September 21, 2011 by Ben

This is going to be shorter than my normal Examining The Odds posts. I’m promoting the first-ever Annapolis Comic-Con on Sunday, and as a result, I am busier than I’ve ever been. It’s a shame, too, because this is a big card and I’d like to give title fights more recognition.

Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck
This is a huge fight. This might be the last time we see Matt Hughes. I know he says he’s not going to make his decision based on this fight, but Matt Hughes says a lot of things. I think Kos will be a pretty big favorite, but his line may be tempered by the short camp he’s had, and also based on the injury he’s coming off of.

Koscheck is the very heavy favorite against Matt Hughes.

My Guess
Hughes: (+200)
Koscheck: (-250)

Bodog.eu
Hughes: (+400)
Koscheck: (-600)

OK, I guess that’s a little more dramatic than I expected. I don’t think people are considering Koscheck’s recent history when they assume he’s going to win this fight. He will have been in camp less than 3 weeks going into this fight, and he’s coming off a devastating injury. I know Hughes isn’t likely to stand and bang with him, which could risk re-injuring his orbital bone, but it’s a risk. I still think Koscheck will win this fight, but I think it’s worth throwing a small amount of money on Hughes, even $5 pays $20 if he wins.

Jon Jones vs. Rampage Jackson
I know Jones is the favorite, much like he was against Shogun. I lost a lot of money on that fight. I think Jones should be facing his toughest test. Rampage is a mean dude who will fight you hard for 25 minutes, or knock you out in a second.

Jones may be too heavy a favorite against Rampage.

My Guess
Jones: (-150)
Rampage: (+125)

Bodog.eu
Jones: (-700)
Rampage: (+450)

Excuse me? This is nuts. You’re trying to tell me that it’s more likely that Matt Hughes wins than Rampage wins? Wow. I don’t see it. Jon Jones may win this fight. But I can’t go as far to say as he probably will. In my mind, this is a pick ‘em. It really depends on the gameplan and preparation Rampage has. He knows what to expect from Jones, is his heart really in this fight? Is he injured? How has Jones’ injury healed up? Rampage is a very experienced fighter. He’s strong. He has good takedown defense. It’s not smart to stand and bang with him if you aren’t a stand-up specialist. Like I said, in my mind, this fight is a pick ‘em. To me, there is an equal chance of either fighter winning. That makes Rampage a hell of a value at (+450). When you can get these kinds of odds on a guy who you think has a decent chance to win the fight, you jump on it. I’m not saying to bet a million dollars on Rampage. He could lose this fight as easily as he could win it. But these are great odds on a good fighter who may be resurgent.

Please remember, any man can win any fight, so betting on MMA can be incredibly risky. On average, fights are more evenly matched than team sports. Keep this in mind if you bet on MMA. Favorites lose all the time, but generally the public isn’t as well-informed about martial arts as they would be about mainstream team sports. With knowledge you may be able to exploit weaknesses in MMA handicapping.

If you have any questions about some of this jargon or about MMA betting in general, feel free to ask in the comments.
Disclaimer: I do not advocate illegal gambling. If sports betting is illegal where you are, please do not bet on games. If it is illegal for you, or you are unsure, and still want to try your hand at sports betting, Centsports.com is an ad-supported, free website that is legal in the United States. Please note, also, that betting odds may change before the fight, so the odds posted here may not be the same when you read this, or uniform to all sports books. 
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Examining The Odds: UFC Fight Night Shields vs. Ellenberger

Posted on September 14, 2011 by Ben

I'm not sure how this card will shake out but this poster looks sweet!

I haven’t really done all my research for this card as I’m writing this intro, but I’m going to say I feel like this is going to be an excellent event to beat the bookie. This is the type of card where the bookmakers make mistakes, and a serious MMA fan can take advantage. Also, note that I’m only checking one site for odds from now on.

Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald
I feel like MacDonald is being fed to Belcher a little, here. It’s not the most lopsided matchup ever, but Belcher moves up the ladder a bit with a win, and MacDonald probably needs to string a few together to get some looks at a better opponent.

Looks like Belcher is being set up to win.

My Guess
Belcher: (-200)
MacDonald: (+150)

Bodog.eu
 Belcher: (-280)
MacDonald:  (+220)

I think this fight is a little closer than the books do, but that’s no surprise. (-280) is not good enough to bet on Belcher. Both of these guys are pretty well-rounded, but Belcher has a stand-up advantage. I wouldn’t bet on MacDonald either, but if you think there’s part of his game that really matches up well with Belcher, (+220) is a pretty good payout.

Jonathan Brookins vs. Eric Koch
It’s about time Brookins got in the cage. When you win TUF, you aren’t supposed to lose your next fight. Brookins is well-rounded, he’s good, and I think he will be a favorite. The key for him is not to sleep on Koch, who has won knockout of the night awards his last two fights. Clearly the dude has great stand-up, but as long as Brookins is careful, he should be able to win.

Brookins is a great underdog pick.

My Guess
Brookins: (-150)
Koch: (+125)

Sportsbook.ag
Brookins: (+160)
Koch:  (-200)

This might be the first time I’ve ever guessed against the book’s favorite. Maybe I’ve just seen a lot more of Brookins than I have of Koch, but I really think he should win. Koch clearly has the stand-up advantage, but Brookins is tough, he has good takedowns, and really good BJJ. Brookins should be able to dictate the pace of the fight and win on his terms. Maybe the injuries from the past year have hurt the public’s opinion of Brookins. I don’t know. I was going to say to bet on Brookins at (-150), but at (+160) I don’t know how you can stay away from it.

Court McGee vs. Dongi Yang
Another TUF champion. I don’t know anything about Yang, but he looks to be a judo ground and pound specialist. McGee is a well-rounded wrestling tough guy, he shouldn’t be in too much danger if Yang takes him down, which is unlikely to happen anyway.

At (-155), Court is a good bet.

My Guess
McGee: (-350)
Yang: (+280)

Sportsbook.ag
McGee: (-155)
Yang:  (+125)

I was way off, but at least I got both guys on the right side this time. I do not see Court McGee losing this fight. Take him at (-155) and just remember that you only stand to return about two thirds of the amount of your bet, so be a little more conservative.

Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger
Shields’ only loss in a million years came at the hands of Georges’ St. Pierre, so I think he’ll be a heavy favorite. Ellenberger is no slouch, but this is a “get back on your feet” fight for Shields.

This isn't a good fight to bet on.

My Guess
Shields: (-250)
Ellenberger: (+185)

Bodog.eu
Shields: (-200)
Ellenberger:  (+160)

I’d stay away from this fight. Ellenberger probably won’t win, and Shields isn’t paying well enough at (-200). Even if Ellenberger wins, (+160) isn’t a huge payout. The risk doesn’t add up to a good bet.

Please remember, any man can win any fight, so betting on MMA can be incredibly risky. On average, fights are more evenly matched than team sports. Keep this in mind if you bet on MMA. Favorites lose all the time, but generally the public isn’t as well-informed about martial arts as they would be about mainstream team sports. With knowledge you may be able to exploit weaknesses in MMA handicapping.
If you have any questions about some of this jargon or about MMA betting in general, feel free to ask in the comments.
Disclaimer: I do not advocate illegal gambling. If sports betting is illegal where you are, please do not bet on games. If it is illegal for you, or you are unsure, and still want to try your hand at sports betting, Centsports.com is an ad-supported, free website that is legal in the United States. Please note, also, that betting odds may change before the fight, so the odds posted here may not be the same when you read this, or uniform to all sports books. 
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UFC and Spike Should Settle and Move On

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Ben

UFC's deal with Fox begins in 2012.

In the wake of the UFC on Fox deal, some interesting details have come out about UFC’s prior deal with Spike TV. That deal ends at the end of this year, except that Spike has the ability to continue airing fights from UFC’s video library on their shows like Unleashed for an additional year. Spike’s corporate sister, MTV2, currently airs Bellator; there is speculation that Viacom wants to move Bellator to Spike, which reaches more households and is available in HD. They wouldn’t be able to put Bellator on Spike as long as Spike holds rights to UFC programming.

Some sources have said that Spike TV is going to run counter-programming from the UFC video library during UFC events on Fox and FX. Others have said that UFC would like to buy the rights to their video library for 2012 back from Spike so they can’t do that. Some different other sources have said that Spike wants to sell the rights to UFC so that they can either get out of the MMA business altogether, or so that they can air Bellator. And I’ve also read that UFC might want Spike to keep the rights to their library as a way to keep Spike from airing Bellator.

Sorting this out involves figuring out how much money Spike TV thinks they can make from airing old UFC footage. They did well counter-programming UFC on Versus, so maybe Spike will look to make a quick buck countering UFC events on Fox and FX. Many people don’t have Versus, or if they do, they may not know they have it. People generally know where to find Fox and FX, and UFC has already seen increased marketing from the Fox deal; counter-programming may not be as effective against future events as it was against UFC on Versus.

Spike TV controls UFC's video library through 2012.

All the reports on this subject seem to agree on only one thing: people know they can find fighting on Spike TV. The fact that counter-programming replay footage against live events worked at all is a testament to the awareness the public has of Spike TV as a destination for MMA. There’s a debate about whether people would still tune in to Bellator on Spike, or if the UFC brand is what is drawing the viewers. It’s possible that without the UFC brand, MMA will be a hard sell on Spike TV.

Here’s my take: It doesn’t matter. Unless Spike TV wants to get out of the MMA game entirely, there is no sense in airing counter-programming to let Bellator sit on the shelf for a year. And yes, MTV2 is “the shelf.” How many Bellator blogs have you seen me – or anybody – write? I blogged about an M-1 event, and I look forward to MFC events like each one is Christmas, but I am not going to watch MMA in standard def. I’m sorry, it’s just unprofessional at this point to air a sport in SD. I DVR every episode of Bellator, and conveniently find a reason never to watch it. Maybe that’s not the case for everybody else, I am probably more of an HD snob than most guys. But there is no doubt that Bellator will have more exposure on Spike than it could ever have on MTV2, and probably at least a little momentum left over from UFC. Counter-programming old UFC footage for one year is not a long-term moneymaking plan.

Bellator stands to gain if they can get on Spike TV as soon as possible.

Spike needs to think about 2013 and beyond. They can either get out of MMA altogether, or jump on the Bellator train. Wouldn’t it make more sense for them to begin developing Bellator sooner? They might even get UFC to pay them for the video library, which would be icing on the cake. That deal would help Bellator, UFC’s competitor, and Spike, a network that has shown interest in counter-programming UFC events, so it makes sense that UFC would be hesitant. And why would UFC want to spend their money on a video library they will already own in a year anyway?

From UFC’s perspective, they’d rather have the video library sooner. It could be confusing to fans if Spike is still showing UFC programming. They might not realize that the live stuff is on FX or Fox. Not having the video library means they have to wait an extra year to really take full advantage of their Fox deal.

And why should UFC care about Bellator or Spike? FX is an improvement over Spike, and Fox is network TV. Has anybody ever dumped their girlfriend for a hotter girl and then fretted over the old girl for long? Hell no! UFC can say, “It’s not you, Spike, it’s us,” and laugh when Spike catches them in bed with FX the next week. The same goes for Bellator. They are not a competitor to UFC. They are a minor league of the UFC. If Bellator moves up in profile, that just means future UFC fighters can move to the big show and already be known by fans. That’s less marketing work UFC has to do, and the marketability of their athletes is improved. UFC wins if Bellator wins.

Spike TV and UFC should find it mutually beneficial to settle up for 2012 as soon as possible. Both companies will be able to move on with their respective future plans, while looking back without animosity on a partnership that made those plans possible. Spike is taking a step down with Bellator, but it’s an organization that delivers exciting fights, they should be able to capitalize on that. Bellator isn’t too far behind UFC on the totem pole of MMA.

UFC will be raising the profile of MMA with the Fox deal. Spike would be stupid to just get rid of their MMA fan base because their UFC deal ended. There is an opportunity for them to do well with Bellator, and that opportunity begins when they settle up with UFC for the rights to their tape library.

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Examining The Odds: Barnett vs. Kharitonov

Posted on September 8, 2011 by Ben


I love Strikeforce events. They might not always have the most relevant fights, but they never fail to deliver. This Grand Prix has been a good time so far. Every fight has been pretty exciting, and we got to see Daniel Cormier go from an up-and-comer to a legitimate heavyweight threat. I’m going to be breaking down the top four fights on the card this Saturday night.

“King Mo” Lawal vs. Roger Gracie
Here’s a classic matchup of the wrestler/striker and the Jiu Jitsu specialist. I think Lawal will be the favorite, he’s got a proven track record, and is much more experienced in MMA than Gracie. Gracie might be one of the best at BJJ but he hasn’t yet proven that he is an elite MMA fighter.

Despite the doubters, I'm firmly in King Mo's corner.

My Guess
Lawal: (-250)
Gracie: (+185)

Sportsbook.ag
Lawal: (-155)
Gracie:  (+125)

Bodog.eu
Lawal: (-160)
Gracie: (+130)

It looks like King Mo is taking a hit after suffering his first loss to Rafael Feijao last year. Roger Gracie isn’t going to present the kinds of problems Feijao did, and if King Mo can stay aggressive and keep the fight off the ground, he shouldn’t have any trouble winning this fight. I wouldn’t have any problem betting a conservative amount on Lawal winning this fight. Typically, I shy away from favorites at (-140) or worse, but (-155) isn’t too bad. If King Mo finds himself on the ground, he may find himself tapping out pretty quick, but I don’t see it happening. He isn’t stupid, he knows where he can win the fight, and where he could lose it. 

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs. Luke Rockhold
Rockhold might be in over his head. The betting will be heavy on Jacare, at least. It’s up to Rockhold to prove that he belongs in the discussion with the big boys of MMA.

Jacare's experience should be the big edge he needs to successfully defend his title.

My Guess
Souza: (-400)
Rockhold: (+285)

Sportsbook.ag
Souza: (-500)
Rockhold:  (+300)

Bodog.eu
Souza: (-500)
Rockhold: (+350)

Too many factors stack up against Rockhold in this one. Experience, previous competition, he has never fought a five-round fight, he has never fought away from the west coast. If you think Rockhold will win, then (+350) is awesome, but if you have even a tiny bit of doubt, stay away. I wouldn’t bet this fight.

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva vs. Daniel Cormier
In his last fight, Bigfoot proved that he was one of the big boys of heavyweight fighting. Now it’s Cormier’s turn. Despite many people jumping on his bandwagon, I think Daniel Cormier will be a big underdog in this fight.

Look at those hands. Would you bet against those hands?

My Guess
Silva: (-250)
Cormier: (+185)

Sportsbook.ag
Silva: (-155)
Cormier:  (+125)

Bodog.eu
Silva: (-155)
Cormier: (+125)

Wow. I know Cormier is getting really hot right now. Clearly people are jumping on his bandwagon, he’s (+125) against a man who made Fedor look like a baby. Here is my bold advice: DO NOT BET ON DANIEL CORMIER. Antonio Silva is gigantic. He’s 6’4″ and probably walks around well over 285 pounds. Daniel Cormier is 5’9″ and weighs in at a flabby 240 pounds. I love Cormier. I think he is a great fighter, I love how he has improved his stand-up in each fight. He has the potential to be a future champion – at light heavyweight. Have you seen Silva’s hands? They shouldn’t call him “Bigfoot,” they should call him “Bighand.” There are only a few ways this fight can go. Bigfoot can stand and bang with Cormier, and both men are taking their chances. I don’t think Silva will want that, so he will probably try to take Cormier down. Is Cormier realistically going to be able to defend those takedowns? Is Cormier going to be able to escape submissions? I am not a BJJ expert, but I would assume that freakishly huge hands are an asset in the submission game. I assume that even if you are a very tough fighter, taking shots from a guy who is literally “heavy-handed” will wear on you after a while. I just don’t see the opening for Cormier to win this fight. I like him as a fighter, I root for him because he has a good personality and he retweeted one of my posts a few weeks ago, but I just don’t see it. Bigfoot Silva is too big and too good to lose to a small heavyweight. On the other hand, getting Silva at (-155) is a bargain. Bet on him, and bet heavy. Everybody who just jumped on Cormier’s bandwagon is helping you make more money if you bet on Silva.

Josh Barnett vs. Sergei Kharitonov
Not a whole lot of thought needs to go into this one. The only question is how big of a favorite Barnett is, and what Kharitonov can possibly do to overcome him.

Josh Barnett should make quick work of Sergei Kharitonov.

My Guess
Barnett: (-400)
Kharitonov: (+350)

Sportsbook.ag
Barnett: (-350)
Kharitonov:  (+275)

Bodog.eu
Barnett: (-350)
Kharitonov: (+275)

There you have it. There isn’t much advice to give. Do not bet on this fight straight up. Kharitonov won’t win, and if you bet on Barnett and he wins, you don’t win crap. I expect Barnett to take Sergei down and just pound on him until he’s either out, or he takes his back and submits him. Kharitonov is an accomplished striker, but I don’t see it working out for him. Barnett is tough, and he’s strong. That’s all he needs. If you want to bet this fight, maybe bet it in a parlay with the Jacare fight, or look for some props. Barnett winning by submission or winning in the first or second round sounds good.

Please remember, any man can win any fight, so betting on MMA can be incredibly risky. On average, fights are more evenly matched than team sports. Keep this in mind if you bet on MMA. Favorites lose all the time, but generally the public isn’t as well-informed about martial arts as they would be about mainstream team sports. With knowledge you may be able to exploit weaknesses in MMA handicapping.
If you have any questions about some of this jargon or about MMA betting in general, feel free to ask in the comments.
Disclaimer: I do not advocate illegal gambling. If sports betting is illegal where you are, please do not bet on games. If it is illegal for you, or you are unsure, and still want to try your hand at sports betting, Centsports.com is an ad-supported, free website that is legal in the United States. Please note, also, that betting odds may change before the fight, so the odds posted here may not be the same when you read this, or uniform to all sports books. 
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Henderson vs. Guida Is Really Happening

Posted on September 7, 2011 by Ben

Ben Henderson has to prove himself once more, against Clay Guida.

I’ve been talking about it long enough, somebody actually listened. Finally, we will see Ben Henderson face off against Clay Guida in what damn well better be a lightweight number one contender eliminator fight. It happens November 12, which means it may air live on Fox before the heavyweight title fight, or it may air on another network, or on the internet. Honestly, though, a card with Henderson, Guida, Cain Velasquez, and Junior Dos Santos is a pretty stacked card, it’s UFC putting its best foot forward. These guys all know how to collect fight night bonuses. I expect them to find a way to fit it on the Fox broadcast.

There is speculation that Fox will add this lightweight bout to their broadcast.

This story got kind of buried when it broke Tuesday, because the world was still reeling over Alistair Overeem signing with UFC. I think the Henderson/Guida fight is a bigger deal. I’m sure UFC doesn’t agree with me on that one, but we know Henderson and Guida won’t disappoint.

November 12 is shaping up to be one of the biggest nights in MMA history, and Dana White is not going to let this opportunity be wasted. I can’t wait.

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Betting Odds Announced for Freshly Made Lesnar vs. Overeem Fight

Posted on September 6, 2011 by Ben

Alistair Overeem's first UFC bout is against Brock Lesnar on December 30.

In what may amount to the biggest fight in UFC history, Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem will be headlining UFC 141 in a five-round bout to determine the number one contender to the heavyweight title. By “biggest,” I mean the most hyped, the most publicized, and probably the biggest pay-per-view numbers in the history of UFC and probably MMA. I didn’t think the sports books would have any odds posted yet, but they must have seen the dollar signs, and jumped right in with both feet.

Lesnar will probably end up the underdog to Overeem, but it's a pick 'em for now.

Sportsbook.ag
Lesnar: (-115)
Overeem:  (-115)

Bodog.eu
Lesnar: (-115)
Overeem: (-115)

We’ve got a pick ‘em! I expected Brock to open as a slight favorite, but I wasn’t sure. Apparently the books aren’t sure, either. There are two huge factors to consider. First, most serious MMA fans believe that Brock Lesnar is highly overrated. I’m not totally convinced, but he definitely has some glaring weaknesses in his game. Second, I expect a lot of money to be put on Lesnar from casual fans who may have never even heard of Overeem. Both of those conflict each other. In Lesnar’s last fight, against Cain Velasquez, he was the favorite, but the line definitely moved away from Brock and closer to Cain toward fight day. Based on that, I expect Overeem will become a favorite shortly, but Brock’s popularity will still temper the line, and an Overeem bet won’t be too expensive leading into the fight, on December 30th.

My advice is not to overlook Brock’s ability as a huge man and a world-class wrestler. When Lesnar gets ahold of you, or gets you to the ground, he may be the best in the world at controlling your body, due to his size. That said, Overeem will get 25 minutes’ worth of chances to knock Brock out, he’s probably going to win. Betting him at -115 is a steal, and it will still be a good bet at (-200). If we are lucky, money from casual fans will pour in on Lesnar and he’ll become the favorite, if even for a short while, but this is probably the best anybody’s going to get if they want to bet on Overeem.

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